THE HILLARY FACTOR – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:   I'm sure all of you have noticed that press coverage of Hillary Clinton is changing.  It's becoming more balanced, more critical.  She had a terrible month, capped by the charge that, as secretary of state, she didn't designate the group that kidnapped the Nigerian girls as a terrorist entity. 

She's also getting heat because the Clinton Foundation, of which she's a major part, accepted donations from the sultan of Brunei, who has a ghastly record on, among other things, women's rights.  And questions concerning Hillary's health are gaining traction. 

Howard Kurtz, of Fox, is not predicting happy times for the would-be president: 

Can Hillary Clinton really be that popular?

Much of the media is clearly ready for a coronation, but is that related to reality?

Her latest numbers are impressive, but there are reasons to be skeptical.

In a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, “most Americans have a favorable view of former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and think she will win the 2016 presidential election.”

Some 57 percent of Americans “who were aware of Clinton” (isn’t that everyone?) have a favorable opinion, while 43 percent see her negatively. And “nearly one-quarter of Republicans said they had a favorable view of Clinton.” That’s pretty remarkable in a polarized electorate, suggesting a certain crossover appeal.

Clinton was most frequently described as “strong,” but “‘Benghazi’ was the term that stood out most when respondents who said they had an unfavorable view of Clinton were asked to explain this perspective.”

And therein lies the rub.

Hillary is not campaigning now (though she is, sort of) and is largely out of the line of fire (speculation about her health notwithstanding). The moment she gets in the race, she faces a relentless barrage and her numbers start to drop.

Right now, she can go on “The View” and wish Barbara Walters a warm farewell. As a candidate, she’d be asked about health care and Nigeria and Iran and what she accomplished at the State Department.

The fact that people expect her to win the presidency is noteworthy, although two years from now it also casts her, in an odd way, as the incumbent.

COMMENT:  A rule of thumb holds that a presidential candidate starts to lose points as soon as he or she announces for the office.  Also, Hillary retains a certain sentimental popularity, but in a real election she'll be up against a real candidate.  If the Republicans choose wisely, she would face real competition.  I think she's very vulnerable, and the "first woman president" argument may not fly if the country is in poor shape.  She may regret having been part of the Obama administration.

May 19, 2014